Bubble Pressure Index Tracker
Capex keeps climbing as buildout continues, and revenue growth keeps pace, so cash generation grows alongside spending instead of falling behind.
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Investor sentiment cools and share prices reprice lower, while the underlying capex and cash flow figures have not changed yet since those only update with each quarterly filing.
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Cash generation weakens or credit becomes more expensive while capex commitments are already locked in, so the gap between spending and cash flow widens quickly.
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Core AI infrastructure
12 companies · capex, FCF and lease commitments from 10-K XBRLUnlock every tracked company. FREE.
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Extended universe
Pro17 neoclouds, data center REITs, and power names -- grouped by sector.
Neocloud/Compute
Data Center REIT
Power/Energy
Power Equipment
Capex is comfortably covered by free cash flow. Minimal reliance on debt-like financing.
9 of 12 companies share this zone
3 of 29 names now spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow.
Notable Findings
Generated from year-over-year changes in filed financials. Descriptive only.
IREN Ltd's FY2026 capital expenditure was $3.0B, up 423% from $0.6B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-08-27.
Source ↗IREN Ltd's combined operating + finance lease liabilities reached $0.2B in FY2026, up 16709% from $0.0B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-08-27.
Source ↗Applied Digital Corp.'s FY2026 free cash flow deficit widened to $2.8B, from $0.8B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-07-29.
Source ↗Applied Digital Corp.'s FY2026 capital expenditure was $2.9B, up 320% from $0.7B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-07-29.
Source ↗Applied Digital Corp.'s combined operating + finance lease liabilities reached $0.1B in FY2026, down 44% from $0.2B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-07-29.
Source ↗MICROSOFT CORP's FY2026 capital expenditure was $115.9B, up 80% from $64.6B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-07-29.
Source ↗MICROSOFT CORP's combined operating + finance lease liabilities reached $83.1B in FY2026, up 31% from $63.6B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-07-29.
Source ↗MICROSOFT CORP's FY2026 capital expenditure ($115.9B) exceeded its free cash flow ($67.0B) for the first time in this dataset, per 10-K filed 2026-07-29.
Source ↗ORACLE CORP's FY2026 free cash flow deficit widened to $23.7B, from $0.4B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-06-22.
Source ↗ORACLE CORP's FY2026 capital expenditure was $55.7B, up 162% from $21.2B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-06-22.
Source ↗ORACLE CORP's combined operating + finance lease liabilities reached $37.9B in FY2026, up 131% from $16.4B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-06-22.
Source ↗ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK's FY2026 free cash flow was $1.0B, up 450% from $0.2B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-05-26.
Source ↗ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK's FY2026 capital expenditure was $0.5B, up 149% from $0.2B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-05-26.
Source ↗ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK's combined operating + finance lease liabilities reached $0.5B in FY2026, up 32% from $0.4B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-05-26.
Source ↗Nebius Group N.V.'s FY2025 free cash flow deficit widened to $3.7B, from $0.6B in FY2024, per 10-K filed 2026-04-30.
Source ↗Nebius Group N.V.'s FY2025 capital expenditure was $4.1B, up 404% from $0.8B in FY2024, per 10-K filed 2026-04-30.
Source ↗Nebius Group N.V.'s combined operating + finance lease liabilities reached $0.8B in FY2025, up 1848% from $0.0B in FY2024, per 10-K filed 2026-04-30.
Source ↗Marvell Technology, Inc.'s FY2026 capital expenditure was $0.4B, up 24% from $0.3B in FY2025, per 10-K filed 2026-03-11.
Source ↗Core Scientific, Inc./tx's FY2025 capital expenditure was $0.7B, up 668% from $0.1B in FY2024, per 10-K filed 2026-03-02.
Source ↗CoreWeave, Inc.'s FY2025 free cash flow deficit widened to $7.3B, from $6.0B in FY2024, per 10-K filed 2026-03-02.
Source ↗How to read the index
Show full methodology →
Capex/FCF = capital expenditure ÷ free cash flow (operating cash flow − capex), from the most recent fiscal year's 10-K. Shown as N/A when FCF is negative, since the ratio's sign flips and stops representing "burden" in that case.
Lease burden = (operating lease liability + finance lease liability + disclosed purchase commitments) ÷ market cap. Excluded (not treated as zero) for fiscal years before lease-liability disclosure was required (pre-ASC 842, ~fiscal 2019).
Cohort share = company market cap ÷ sum of market caps of all companies tracked on this dashboard. This is a proxy for "AI-sector share of the S&P 500" scoped to this tracked cohort, not the literal S&P 500 figure. That requires a paid data source we don't use here.
Bubble Pressure Index (0 to 100) = a weighted composite of the three components above, each normalized on a common 0 to 1 scale relative to the other tracked companies for that fiscal year, then combined into a single 0 to 100 score. Capex/FCF carries the heaviest weight, followed by lease burden, then cohort share. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalized rather than treated as zero. Exact weighting is a proprietary MVP default, refined as the model matures, and is intentionally not published in full detail.
Gauge zones: 0 to 25 Conservative, 25 to 50 Moderate, 50 to 75 Stretched, 75 to 100 Highly Leveraged. Even split of the 0 to 100 range, an MVP default, not a statistically calibrated risk threshold.
Percentile = the share of the other tracked companies (same shared fiscal year) whose score is strictly lower than this company's. With 29 companies tracked, each step is about 1 in 28 peers, so values land in increments of roughly 3.6 percentage points rather than every whole number.
Companies are compared on the latest fiscal year shared by all of them, not each company's own newest filing. Fiscal year-ends differ (e.g. MSFT: June, NVDA: ~January, ORCL: May, AVGO: ~October/November), so comparing a company's newest filing against another's several-months-old one would be misleading.
The Bubble Pressure Index combines three inputs -- capex/FCF ratio, lease burden, and market-cap share -- each normalized to 0-1 across the tracked cohort. Capex/FCF carries the heaviest weight, followed by lease burden, then cohort share, combined into a single 0-100 score; exact weighting is a proprietary MVP default, not published in full detail.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. This dashboard's operator is not a registered investment adviser.